Inflation falls in october, easing pressure on SMEs

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported Monday that headline inflation dropped to 16.05%, down from 18.02% in September.

The 1.96% decline marks one of the sharpest monthly moderations this year.
According to the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), the development is “a major boost for macroeconomic stability.”
CPPE’s CEO, Dr. Muda Yusuf, described the decline as “one of the strongest single-month disinflation figures recorded in 2025.”

Year-on-year inflation slowed to 17.82%, compared to 33.88% in October 2024.

Mixed Month-on-Month Performance

NBS noted that month-on-month inflation stood at 0.93%, higher than 0.72% recorded in September, indicating a faster rise in average prices between both months.

Food inflation also eased year-on-year to 13.12% from 39.16% in October 2024. However, month-on-month, the food index rose slightly to -0.37% from -1.57% in September due to higher prices of onions, fruits, groundnuts, vegetables, goat meat, cow tail, and liver.

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• Inflation falls in october, easing pressure on SMEs

Core inflation (excluding volatile energy and farm produce) declined to 18.69% year-on-year from 28.37% in 2024, while holding steady at 1.41% month-on-month.

State-by-State Breakdown

• Highest Year-on-Year Headline Inflation: Ekiti (20.14%), Nasarawa (18.97%), Zamfara (18.81%)
• Lowest: Bauchi (9.99%), Anambra (11.72%), Gombe (11.73%)

Month-on-month increases were highest in Niger, Anambra, and Enugu, while Edo, Katsina, and Adamawa recorded declines.

For food inflation, the highest year-on-year rates were in Ogun, Nasarawa, and Ekiti, while Akwa Ibom, Katsina, and Yobe saw the slowest rises.

Why Inflation Is Falling

Yusuf attributed the decline to:

• Exchange rate stability
• Monetary tightening
• Improved FX liquidity
• Decline in speculative currency demand
• Better investor confidence driven by reforms

He noted that five sectors accounted for 84% of October’s inflation pressure: food & beverages, transport, housing/utilities, education, and health.

Structural Problems Persist

Despite the improvements, Yusuf warned that structural constraints—including high transport costs, expensive energy, high interest rates, and climate-related disruptions—continue to slow progress.

He stressed that stronger coordination between the CBN, Finance Ministry, Agriculture Ministry, Transport Ministry, customs, and trade agencies is essential for sustainable inflation control.

He added that boosting irrigation and climate-resilient agriculture would help strengthen Nigeria’s food system and deliver real cost-of-living relief.