In the upcoming year, Nigeria is anticipated to become the world’s largest rice importer, with projections indicating a purchase of 2.1 million metric tons in 2024, as outlined in the latest Rice Outlook report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (USDA).
The report forecasts a global rice trade of approximately 52.85 million tons (milled basis) by 2024, with increased exports from Brazil and South Korea, and heightened imports from Burkina Faso, Indonesia, and Nigeria. Notably, Indonesia’s import forecast has surged by 600,000 tons to reach 2.0 million tons.
Weakening rice production is anticipated in Nigeria and seven other nations, with factors such as diet diversification and aging populations contributing to declines in Japan and South Korea. The global rice production projection for 2023/24 is set at a record 517.8 million tons (milled basis), with Nigeria expected to contribute about 5.23 million tons.
The report indicates that Nigeria will outpace other nations in rice imports in 2024, with projections of 2.1 million metric tons, followed by Indonesia at 2 million metric tons and Brazil at 900,000 metric tons.
This represents a 100,000 metric ton increase in Nigeria’s import forecast from the October projection, attributed to robust demand driven by high domestic rice prices and quality concerns.
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The recent removal of foreign exchange restrictions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) after eight years is expected to further boost rice imports. While opinions on this move vary, some farmers support it, seeing it as breaking the monopoly of local millers in grain processing and marketing.
Despite a previous apparent decrease in rice imports, evidenced by a 98.4% drop between the first seven months of 2022 and the same period in 2021, there are indications that foreign rice may be entering the country through unofficial channels.
A recent seizure by the Nigeria Customs Service of 13 trailer loads of foreign parboiled rice and other items highlights the ongoing challenges associated with rice importation.
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