The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected global public debt will reach an unprecedented $100 trillion by the end of this year, raising concerns about the fiscal health of nations worldwide. In its latest report on fiscal policy, the IMF warned that global debt could soon account for 93% of global GDP, with a forecast to near 100% by 2030—10 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Era Dabla-Norris, the IMF’s deputy director of fiscal affairs, emphasized that the current debt outlook could be more severe than anticipated due to unexpected fiscal pressures, including climate change spending and possible unreported liabilities. “The debt burden may be worse than expected,” she cautioned, calling on governments to take decisive steps to stabilize their finances.
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The report introduced a “debt-at-risk” model, estimating that global public debt could surge to 115% of GDP by 2026 in a worst-case scenario. With rising borrowing costs driven by global factors, the IMF stressed that elevated debt levels in major economies could lead to greater volatility in sovereign yields across the board.
Despite these risks, the IMF noted that easing inflation and interest rate cuts create a favorable environment for governments to rebuild fiscal buffers. The organization urged countries to undertake fiscal adjustments ranging from 3% to 4.5% of GDP—nearly double the size of past corrections to regain control over soaring public debt.
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