The September 2024 Business Expectations Survey (BES) has revealed that manufacturers in Nigeria are expressing pessimism about their business operations, citing insecurity, high interest rates, and multiple tax burdens as major constraints.
The survey, conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in collaboration with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), examined business sectors’ macroeconomic outlook between September 2024 and March 2025.
The BES covered key sectors, including industry, services, and agriculture. The industry sector comprises manufacturing, construction, mining, quarrying, electricity, gas, and water supply, while the services sector includes both market and non-market services. Agriculture was assessed as a stand-alone sector.
The survey results indicated that while respondents were generally optimistic about the business outlook in September 2024, challenges in the manufacturing sector dampened confidence. “Respondents were optimistic about the overall business outlook in September 2024. However, insecurity, high interest rates, and high or multiple taxes were identified as key factors constraining business activities,” the report noted.
The services and agriculture sectors showed positive sentiment, with business confidence indices of 3.2 and 2.7 points, respectively. In contrast, the industry sector recorded a negative sentiment, with a confidence index of -3.4 points.
Sub-sectors such as construction, mining, quarrying, electricity, gas, and water supply exhibited optimism, with confidence indices of 19.5, 16.0, and 13.5 points. However, manufacturing and market services remained in the negative zone, with indices of -7.2 and -0.5 points, respectively.
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The overall confidence index (CI) for all surveyed sectors stood at 3.2 points in September, signaling cautious optimism among businesses about future macroeconomic conditions. This index is computed by subtracting the percentage of firms with negative outlooks from those with positive outlooks.
The CI is projected to rise to 6.2 points in October, reflecting growing optimism driven by sectors such as construction (24.4 points), non-market services (18.3 points), and agriculture (8.8 points).
Despite the general optimism, the manufacturing sector continues to struggle with challenges. During the pre-52nd Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Francis Meshioye, the association’s president, highlighted rising production costs, high borrowing rates, and reduced consumer patronage as significant concerns for manufacturers.
“We are committed to continuously presenting policy options to the government and partnering with them to enhance manufacturers’ productivity. Our aim is to co-create innovative solutions that will boost the Nigerian economy and promote sustainable growth,” Meshioye stated.
Looking ahead, the BES projects that export-oriented businesses will be key drivers of optimism over the next three and six months, with indices of 23.9 points and 29.9 points, respectively. Import-oriented and non-exporting businesses are also expected to contribute to positive business sentiment.
As businesses continue to navigate economic challenges, the outlook for October 2024 suggests cautious optimism across most sectors, with key drivers of growth coming from construction, non-market services, and the export-oriented sector.
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